March 6, 2020
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Deron Winn | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 995 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Gerald Meerschaert's 7-fight experience advantage (10 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Gerald Meerschaert for the expected result. Had Deron Winn pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Deron Winn | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 976 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Deron Winn | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:13 | 2:13 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 015 | 1 267 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +30 |
Gerald Meerschaert earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 2:13, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Deron Winn was submitted.
| Metric | Deron Winn | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 53 | 86 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 111 | 187 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 53 | 86 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 937 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -59 | +59 |
Gerald Meerschaert controlled the striking exchanges with 86 vs 53 total strikes, 86 vs 53 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Gerald Meerschaert capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Deron Winn | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:11 | 0:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 941 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | -46 | +46 |
Gerald Meerschaert controlled Deron Winn on the ground with 1 takedown, 0:21 of control time, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Deron Winn | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 142 | 148 |
| Activity ELO | 989 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +31 |
Gerald Meerschaert demonstrated solid activity levels with 148 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Gerald Meerschaert capitalized on this activity level, while Deron Winn's 142-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Deron Winn | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 980 | 1 049 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
Gerald Meerschaert started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Deron Winn is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Deron Winn | Gerald Meerschaert |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 976 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.