June 17, 2022
Middleweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Deron Winn | Phil Hawes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 5 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 002 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +34 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (5 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Deron Winn | Phil Hawes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 978 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Deron Winn | Phil Hawes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:25 | 4:25 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 014 | 1 177 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +73 |
Phil Hawes gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Deron Winn | Phil Hawes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 118 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 111 | 175 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 34 | 126 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 877 | 1 154 |
| ELO Change | -83 | +83 |
Phil Hawes dominated the striking exchanges with 126 vs 34 total strikes, 118 vs 32 significant strikes, 67.4% vs 28.8% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Phil Hawes capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Deron Winn | Phil Hawes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:47 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 15 |
| Ground ELO | 979 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | -48 | +48 |
Phil Hawes controlled Deron Winn on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 0:47 of control time, 15 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Deron Winn | Phil Hawes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 546 | 224 |
| Activity ELO | 993 | 1 112 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +20 |
Phil Hawes demonstrated standard activity with 224 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Phil Hawes capitalized on this activity level, while Deron Winn's 546-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Deron Winn | Phil Hawes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 985 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +20 |
Phil Hawes started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Deron Winn is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Deron Winn | Phil Hawes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Middleweight | Middleweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 978 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.