February 7, 2020
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Ilir Latifi |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 19 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 278 | 1 070 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Derrick Lewis's 6-fight experience advantage (19 vs 13 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Derrick Lewis for the expected result. Had Ilir Latifi pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Ilir Latifi |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 167 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Ilir Latifi |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 531 | 1 301 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Derrick Lewis earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Ilir Latifi |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 50 | 12 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 27 | 62 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 373 | 1 089 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
Ilir Latifi controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (62 vs 27 total strikes), significant strike advantage (5 vs 20). However, since Ilir Latifi lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Derrick Lewis's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Ilir Latifi |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 7 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:41 | 8:48 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 238 | 1 274 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Derrick Lewis did not secure a significant ground advantage against Ilir Latifi on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:41 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Ilir Latifi |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 98 | 183 |
| Activity ELO | 1 371 | 1 177 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -12 |
Derrick Lewis demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Derrick Lewis capitalized on this activity level, while Ilir Latifi's 183-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Ilir Latifi |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 227 | 1 059 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -13 |
Derrick Lewis extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Ilir Latifi is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Ilir Latifi |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 165 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.