March 8, 2019
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Junior Dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 17 | 19 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 241 | 1 331 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
Junior Dos Santos's 2-fight experience advantage (19 vs 17 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Junior Dos Santos for the expected result. Had Derrick Lewis pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Junior Dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 137 | 1 248 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Junior Dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:58 | 1:58 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 508 | 1 640 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +85 |
Junior Dos Santos gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Junior Dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 29 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 25 | 55 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 7 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 347 | 1 580 |
| ELO Change | -137 | +137 |
Junior Dos Santos controlled the striking exchanges with 29 vs 7 total strikes, 29 vs 7 significant strikes, 52.7% vs 28.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Junior Dos Santos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Junior Dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 0:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 192 | 1 331 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +45 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Junior Dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 98 |
| Activity ELO | 1 329 | 1 369 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +59 |
Junior Dos Santos demonstrated solid activity levels with 98 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Junior Dos Santos capitalized on this activity level, while Derrick Lewis's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Junior Dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 197 | 1 310 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +21 |
Junior Dos Santos extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Derrick Lewis is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Junior Dos Santos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 135 | 1 185 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.