February 17, 2018
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 221 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Derrick Lewis's 7-fight experience advantage (13 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Derrick Lewis for the expected result. Had Marcin Tybura pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 123 | 1 018 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 2:48 | 2:48 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 466 | 1 188 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -18 |
Derrick Lewis gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 30 | 37 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 45 | 56 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 32 | 83 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 400 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | +72 | -72 |
Marcin Tybura controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (83 vs 32 total strikes), solid significant strike edge (37 vs 30). However, since Marcin Tybura lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Derrick Lewis's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:16 | 7:13 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 20 | 23 |
| Ground ELO | 1 225 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
Derrick Lewis did not secure a significant ground advantage against Marcin Tybura on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:16 of control time, 20 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 254 | 92 |
| Activity ELO | 1 304 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -11 |
Derrick Lewis demonstrated standard activity with 254 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Derrick Lewis capitalized on this activity level, while Marcin Tybura's 92-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 185 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -14 |
Derrick Lewis started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marcin Tybura is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Marcin Tybura |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 122 | 1 014 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.