July 28, 2023
Heavyweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 27 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | 10 | -10 |
| Experience ELO | 1 225 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Derrick Lewis's 10-fight experience advantage (27 vs 17 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Derrick Lewis for the expected result. Had Marcos Rogerio de Lima pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 132 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:33 | 0:33 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 535 | 1 344 |
| ELO Change | +90 | -34 |
Derrick Lewis secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:33 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 17 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 33 | 1 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 20 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 342 | 1 101 |
| ELO Change | +254 | -254 |
Derrick Lewis controlled the striking exchanges with 17 vs 1 significant strikes, 51.5% vs 100.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Derrick Lewis capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:29 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 16 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 135 | 1 118 |
| ELO Change | +85 | -85 |
Derrick Lewis controlled Marcos Rogerio de Lima on the ground with 0:29 of control time, 16 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 175 | 91 |
| Activity ELO | 1 333 | 1 162 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -13 |
Derrick Lewis demonstrated solid activity levels with 175 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Derrick Lewis capitalized on this activity level, while Marcos Rogerio de Lima's 91-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 194 | 1 088 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -17 |
Derrick Lewis started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marcos Rogerio de Lima is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Marcos Rogerio de Lima |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 130 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

