September 4, 2014
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Matt Mitrione |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 11 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 024 | 1 129 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Matt Mitrione's 8-fight experience advantage (11 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Mitrione for the expected result. Had Derrick Lewis pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Matt Mitrione |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 021 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Matt Mitrione |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 0:41 | 0:41 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 133 | 1 382 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +63 |
Matt Mitrione secured a devastating KO/TKO in 0:41 of round 1. This explosive first-minute finish earned substantial bonus rewards for the exceptional performance.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Matt Mitrione |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 1 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 1 | 9 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 032 | 1 284 |
| ELO Change | -83 | +83 |
Matt Mitrione slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 7 vs 1 significant strikes, 63.6% vs 100.0% accuracy. Matt Mitrione capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Matt Mitrione |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:07 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Ground ELO | 1 046 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | -60 | +60 |
Matt Mitrione controlled Derrick Lewis on the ground with 5 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Matt Mitrione |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 61 | 188 |
| Activity ELO | 1 064 | 1 178 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +20 |
Matt Mitrione demonstrated standard activity with 188 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Matt Mitrione capitalized on this activity level, while Derrick Lewis's 61-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Matt Mitrione |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 029 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +22 |
Matt Mitrione extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Derrick Lewis is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Matt Mitrione |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 021 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.