May 10, 2024
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Rodrigo Nascimento |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 29 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 22 | -22 |
| Experience ELO | 1 224 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Derrick Lewis's 22-fight experience advantage (29 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Derrick Lewis for the expected result. Had Rodrigo Nascimento pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Rodrigo Nascimento |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 127 | 1 047 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Rodrigo Nascimento |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 0:49 | 0:49 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 496 | 1 101 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -9 |
Derrick Lewis gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Rodrigo Nascimento |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 41 | 27 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 75 | 41 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 47 | 72 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 327 | 972 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -27 |
Derrick Lewis controlled the striking exchanges with 47 vs 72 total strikes, 41 vs 27 significant strikes, 54.7% vs 65.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Derrick Lewis capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Rodrigo Nascimento |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:23 | 4:46 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 13 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 1 135 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Derrick Lewis landed 1 knockdown followed by 13 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Rodrigo Nascimento |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 189 | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 1 319 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -10 |
Derrick Lewis demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Derrick Lewis capitalized on this activity level, while Rodrigo Nascimento's 189-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Rodrigo Nascimento |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 187 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -16 |
Derrick Lewis started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rodrigo Nascimento is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Rodrigo Nascimento |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 125 | 1 046 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.