July 6, 2016
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 9 | 17 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 176 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -26 |
Derrick Lewis overcame a 8-fight experience disadvantage (9 vs 17 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Roy Nelson.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 094 | 1 008 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 340 | 1 285 |
| ELO Change | +9 | -9 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Derrick Lewis receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 37 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 73 | 19 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 39 | 66 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 284 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | +38 | -38 |
Derrick Lewis controlled the striking exchanges with 39 vs 66 total strikes, 37 vs 4 significant strikes, 50.7% vs 21.1% accuracy. Derrick Lewis capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 10 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 9:41 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 148 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Derrick Lewis did not secure a significant ground advantage against Roy Nelson on the ground with 0 takedowns, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 88 | 152 |
| Activity ELO | 1 259 | 1 144 |
| ELO Change | +56 | -19 |
Derrick Lewis demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 88 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Derrick Lewis capitalized on this activity level, while Roy Nelson's 152-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 122 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -18 |
Derrick Lewis extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Roy Nelson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Roy Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 094 | 1 001 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.