February 3, 2023
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 26 | 10 |
| Experience Gap | 16 | -16 |
| Experience ELO | 1 195 | 1 237 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +79 |
Serghei Spivac overcame a 16-fight experience disadvantage (10 vs 26 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Derrick Lewis.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 113 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:05 | 3:05 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 445 | 1 431 |
| ELO Change | -62 | +102 |
Serghei Spivac earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:05, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 0 | 12 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 3 | 21 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 0 | 36 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 088 | 1 303 |
| ELO Change | -136 | +136 |
Serghei Spivac controlled the striking exchanges with 36 vs 0 total strikes, 12 vs 0 significant strikes, 57.1% vs 0.0% accuracy. Serghei Spivac capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 8 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 2:32 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 1 050 | 1 430 |
| ELO Change | -173 | +173 |
Serghei Spivac dominated Derrick Lewis on the ground with 6 vs 0 takedowns, 2:32 of control time, 12 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 190 | 183 |
| Activity ELO | 1 310 | 1 216 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +38 |
Serghei Spivac demonstrated standard activity with 183 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Serghei Spivac capitalized on this activity level, while Derrick Lewis's 190-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 175 | 1 127 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +36 |
Serghei Spivac extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Derrick Lewis is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Serghei Spivac |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 111 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.