October 2, 2015
Heavyweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Viktor Pesta |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 051 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Derrick Lewis's 3-fight experience advantage (6 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Derrick Lewis for the expected result. Had Viktor Pesta pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Viktor Pesta |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 037 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Viktor Pesta |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:15 | 1:15 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 196 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +52 | -26 |
Derrick Lewis gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Viktor Pesta |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 41 | 8 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 63 | 13 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 51 | 47 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 054 | 938 |
| ELO Change | +90 | -90 |
Derrick Lewis controlled the striking exchanges with 41 vs 8 significant strikes. Derrick Lewis capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Viktor Pesta |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 5 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 13 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:29 | 7:09 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 28 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 052 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Derrick Lewis did not secure a significant ground advantage against Viktor Pesta on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:29 of control time, 28 ground strikes, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Viktor Pesta |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 252 |
| Activity ELO | 1 113 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -17 |
Derrick Lewis demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Derrick Lewis capitalized on this activity level, while Viktor Pesta's 252-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Viktor Pesta |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 049 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -19 |
Derrick Lewis started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Viktor Pesta is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Derrick Lewis | Viktor Pesta |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Heavyweight | Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 037 | 981 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.