April 14, 2006
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Derrick Noble | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 970 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Thiago Alves's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Alves for the expected result. Had Derrick Noble pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Derrick Noble | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 979 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Derrick Noble | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:54 | 2:54 |
| Win Type ELO | 966 | 1 141 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +77 |
Thiago Alves earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:54, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Derrick Noble | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 18 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 45 | 27 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 26 | 19 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 934 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | -66 | +66 |
Derrick Noble controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (18 vs 11). However, since Derrick Noble lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Thiago Alves's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Derrick Noble | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:39 | 0:12 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 947 | 1 052 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +53 |
Thiago Alves landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Derrick Noble | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 147 |
| Activity ELO | 984 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +31 |
Thiago Alves demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Alves capitalized on this activity level, while Derrick Noble's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Derrick Noble | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 979 | 1 028 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +25 |
Thiago Alves extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Derrick Noble is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Derrick Noble | Thiago Alves |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 979 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

