Derrick Noble vs Thiago Alves

April 14, 2006

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

967
(-33)
Derrick Noble
Winner: Thiago Alves
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 2:54

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Derrick Noble-33
Thiago Alves+40
1071
(+40)
Thiago Alves

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Derrick Noble: -30Thiago Alves: +30

Performance Statistics

MetricDerrick NobleThiago Alves
Total UFC Fights13
Experience Gap-22
Experience ELO9701 042
ELO Change-30+30
💡

What Happened

Thiago Alves's 2-fight experience advantage (3 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Thiago Alves for the expected result. Had Derrick Noble pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Derrick Noble: -21Thiago Alves: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricDerrick NobleThiago Alves
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO9791 022
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Derrick Noble: -34Thiago Alves: +77

Performance Statistics

MetricDerrick NobleThiago Alves
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish2:542:54
Win Type ELO9661 141
ELO Change-34+77
💡

What Happened

Thiago Alves earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:54, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Derrick Noble: -66Thiago Alves: +66

Performance Statistics

MetricDerrick NobleThiago Alves
Significant Strikes Landed1811
Significant Strikes Attempted4527
Total Strikes Landed2619
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO9341 143
ELO Change-66+66
💡

What Happened

Derrick Noble controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (18 vs 11). However, since Derrick Noble lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Thiago Alves's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Derrick Noble: -53Thiago Alves: +53

Performance Statistics

MetricDerrick NobleThiago Alves
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time0:390:12
Ground Strikes Landed02
Ground ELO9471 052
ELO Change-53+53
💡

What Happened

Thiago Alves landed 1 knockdown followed by 2 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Derrick Noble: -16Thiago Alves: +31

Performance Statistics

MetricDerrick NobleThiago Alves
Days Since Last FightN/A147
Activity ELO9841 121
ELO Change-16+31
💡

What Happened

Thiago Alves demonstrated solid activity levels with 147 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Thiago Alves capitalized on this activity level, while Derrick Noble's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Derrick Noble: -21Thiago Alves: +25

Performance Statistics

MetricDerrick NobleThiago Alves
Win Streak02
Win Streak ELO9791 028
ELO Change-21+25
💡

What Happened

Thiago Alves extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Derrick Noble is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Derrick Noble: -21Thiago Alves: +21

Performance Statistics

MetricDerrick NobleThiago Alves
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO9791 022
ELO Change-21+21
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.