June 18, 2021
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dhiego Lima | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 28 |
| Experience Gap | -17 | 17 |
| Experience ELO | 1 011 | 1 115 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Matt Brown's 17-fight experience advantage (28 vs 11 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Matt Brown for the expected result. Had Dhiego Lima pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dhiego Lima | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 973 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dhiego Lima | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:02 | 3:02 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 042 | 1 327 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +36 |
Matt Brown gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Dhiego Lima | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 23 | 27 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 54 | 49 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 23 | 30 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 880 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -71 | +71 |
Matt Brown controlled the striking exchanges with 55.1% vs 42.6% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Matt Brown capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dhiego Lima | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:52 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 941 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +14 |
Matt Brown did not secure a significant ground advantage against Dhiego Lima on the ground through positional advantages and pressure, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Dhiego Lima | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 126 | 154 |
| Activity ELO | 1 062 | 1 258 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +21 |
Matt Brown demonstrated solid activity levels with 154 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matt Brown capitalized on this activity level, while Dhiego Lima's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dhiego Lima | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 998 | 1 144 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +16 |
Matt Brown started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dhiego Lima is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dhiego Lima | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 972 | 1 063 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

