February 27, 2015
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dhiego Lima | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 8 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 980 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Tim Means's 5-fight experience advantage (8 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Tim Means for the expected result. Had Dhiego Lima pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dhiego Lima | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dhiego Lima | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:17 | 2:17 |
| Win Type ELO | 969 | 1 135 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +81 |
Tim Means earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 2:17, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Dhiego Lima | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 7 | 23 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 24 | 42 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 7 | 25 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 867 | 1 214 |
| ELO Change | -68 | +68 |
Tim Means dominated the striking exchanges with 23 vs 7 significant strikes, 54.8% vs 29.2% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Tim Means capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dhiego Lima | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:02 | 0:22 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 005 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | -69 | +69 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Dhiego Lima | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 70 |
| Activity ELO | 1 008 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +49 |
Tim Means demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 70 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Tim Means capitalized on this activity level, while Dhiego Lima's 112-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dhiego Lima | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 984 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +25 |
Tim Means extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dhiego Lima is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dhiego Lima | Tim Means |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

