October 6, 2023
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Diana Belbita | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | -10 | 10 |
| Experience ELO | 960 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +23 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz's 10-fight experience advantage (16 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Karolina Kowalkiewicz for the expected result. Had Diana Belbita pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Diana Belbita | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 962 | 1 055 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Diana Belbita | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 935 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Diana Belbita | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 99 | 141 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 261 | 267 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 108 | 155 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 986 | 1 068 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz controlled the striking exchanges with 155 vs 108 total strikes, 141 vs 99 significant strikes, 52.8% vs 37.9% accuracy. Karolina Kowalkiewicz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Diana Belbita | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:53 | 2:15 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 875 | 1 091 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +15 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz slightly outworked Diana Belbita on the ground with 1 takedown, 2:15 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning modest grappling bonuses.
| Metric | Diana Belbita | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 119 | 140 |
| Activity ELO | 965 | 1 150 |
| ELO Change | -13 | +25 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz demonstrated solid activity levels with 140 days since her last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Karolina Kowalkiewicz capitalized on this activity level, while Diana Belbita's 119-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Diana Belbita | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 969 | 1 086 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +23 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz extended her 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Diana Belbita is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Diana Belbita | Karolina Kowalkiewicz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 962 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

