February 2, 2024
Women's Strawweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Diana Belbita | Molly McCann |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -5 | 5 |
| Experience ELO | 933 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Molly McCann's 5-fight experience advantage (12 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Molly McCann for the expected result. Had Diana Belbita pulled off the upset, her experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Diana Belbita | Molly McCann |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 944 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Diana Belbita | Molly McCann |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:59 | 4:59 |
| Win Type ELO | 909 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +43 |
Molly McCann earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:59, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Diana Belbita | Molly McCann |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 29 | 42 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 77 | 91 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 29 | 43 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 959 | 1 067 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Molly McCann edged the striking exchanges with 42 vs 29 significant strikes, 46.2% vs 37.7% accuracy. Molly McCann capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Diana Belbita | Molly McCann |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 1:08 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 751 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | -124 | +124 |
Molly McCann dominated Diana Belbita on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 1:08 of control time, 6 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Diana Belbita | Molly McCann |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 120 | 197 |
| Activity ELO | 951 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +18 |
Molly McCann demonstrated standard activity with 197 days since her last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Molly McCann capitalized on this activity level, while Diana Belbita's 120-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Diana Belbita | Molly McCann |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 951 | 1 045 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +19 |
Molly McCann started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Diana Belbita is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Diana Belbita | Molly McCann |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Women's Strawweight | Women's Strawweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 944 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | -18 | +18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.