December 27, 2013
Featherweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Diego Brandao | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 6 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 057 | 1 129 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Dustin Poirier's 3-fight experience advantage (9 vs 6 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dustin Poirier for the expected result. Had Diego Brandao pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Diego Brandao | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 041 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Diego Brandao | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:54 | 4:54 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 144 | 1 296 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +82 |
Dustin Poirier earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:54, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Diego Brandao | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 16 | 44 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 48 | 87 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 17 | 48 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 038 | 1 285 |
| ELO Change | -93 | +93 |
Dustin Poirier controlled the striking exchanges with 48 vs 17 total strikes, 44 vs 16 significant strikes, 50.6% vs 33.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Dustin Poirier capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Diego Brandao | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:12 | 0:33 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 148 | 1 153 |
| ELO Change | -61 | +61 |
Dustin Poirier landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Diego Brandao | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 134 | 120 |
| Activity ELO | 1 103 | 1 176 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +41 |
Dustin Poirier demonstrated solid activity levels with 120 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Dustin Poirier capitalized on this activity level, while Diego Brandao's 134-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Diego Brandao | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 055 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +24 |
Dustin Poirier extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Diego Brandao is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Diego Brandao | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Featherweight | Featherweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 041 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

