April 3, 2015
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Diego Ferreira | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 043 | 1 152 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Dustin Poirier's 8-fight experience advantage (12 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Dustin Poirier for the expected result. Had Diego Ferreira pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Diego Ferreira | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 003 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Diego Ferreira | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:45 | 3:45 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 113 | 1 341 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +54 |
Dustin Poirier earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 3:45, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Diego Ferreira | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 56 | 50 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 20 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 2 |
| Striking ELO | 1 028 | 1 310 |
| ELO Change | -84 | +84 |
Dustin Poirier dominated the striking exchanges with 48.0% vs 35.7% accuracy, including 2 devastating knockdowns. Dustin Poirier capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Diego Ferreira | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:58 | 0:46 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 006 | 1 182 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Dustin Poirier landed 2 knockdowns followed by 3 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Diego Ferreira | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 161 | 189 |
| Activity ELO | 1 062 | 1 203 |
| ELO Change | -15 | +18 |
Dustin Poirier demonstrated standard activity with 189 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Dustin Poirier capitalized on this activity level, while Diego Ferreira's 161-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Diego Ferreira | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 011 | 1 130 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +17 |
Dustin Poirier started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Diego Ferreira is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Diego Ferreira | Dustin Poirier |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 003 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.