December 7, 2018
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Diego Ferreira | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 130 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
Diego Ferreira's 6-fight experience advantage (7 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Diego Ferreira for the expected result. Had Kyle Nelson pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Diego Ferreira | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 066 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Diego Ferreira | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:23 | 1:23 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 282 | 984 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -16 |
Diego Ferreira gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Diego Ferreira | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 54 | 20 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 102 | 50 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 63 | 20 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 249 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -37 |
Diego Ferreira controlled the striking exchanges with 63 vs 20 total strikes, 54 vs 20 significant strikes, 52.9% vs 40.0% accuracy. Diego Ferreira capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Diego Ferreira | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:28 | 0:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 26 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 191 | 957 |
| ELO Change | +43 | -43 |
Diego Ferreira controlled Kyle Nelson on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 3:28 of control time, 26 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Diego Ferreira | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 293 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 117 | 985 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
Diego Ferreira demonstrated standard activity with 293 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Diego Ferreira capitalized on this activity level, while Kyle Nelson's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Diego Ferreira | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 085 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -17 |
Diego Ferreira extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Kyle Nelson is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Diego Ferreira | Kyle Nelson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 066 | 982 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.