May 10, 2024
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Diego Ferreira | Mateusz Rebecki |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | 11 | -11 |
| Experience ELO | 1 213 | 1 074 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Diego Ferreira's 11-fight experience advantage (15 vs 4 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Diego Ferreira for the expected result. Had Mateusz Rebecki pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Diego Ferreira | Mateusz Rebecki |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 106 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Diego Ferreira | Mateusz Rebecki |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 4:51 | 4:51 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 430 | 1 166 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -20 |
Diego Ferreira gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Diego Ferreira | Mateusz Rebecki |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 123 | 52 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 241 | 137 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 151 | 60 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 329 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | +64 | -64 |
Diego Ferreira dominated the striking exchanges with 151 vs 60 total strikes, 123 vs 52 significant strikes, 51.0% vs 38.0% accuracy. Diego Ferreira capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Diego Ferreira | Mateusz Rebecki |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 4 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:12 | 2:26 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 29 | 6 |
| Ground ELO | 1 244 | 1 180 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -48 |
Diego Ferreira edged out Mateusz Rebecki on the ground with 3 takedowns, 2:12 of control time, 29 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Diego Ferreira | Mateusz Rebecki |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 357 | 182 |
| Activity ELO | 1 235 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
Diego Ferreira demonstrated standard activity with 357 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Diego Ferreira capitalized on this activity level, while Mateusz Rebecki's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Diego Ferreira | Mateusz Rebecki |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 178 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -16 |
Diego Ferreira extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mateusz Rebecki is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Diego Ferreira | Mateusz Rebecki |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 102 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.