September 21, 2007
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Diego Sanchez | Jon Fitch |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 113 | 1 196 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +31 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (8 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Diego Sanchez | Jon Fitch |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 076 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Diego Sanchez | Jon Fitch |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 272 | 1 323 |
| ELO Change | -10 | +10 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Jon Fitch receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Diego Sanchez | Jon Fitch |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 25 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 18 | 40 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 25 | 144 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 238 | 1 432 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +38 |
Jon Fitch dominated the striking exchanges with 144 vs 25 total strikes, 25 vs 11 significant strikes. Jon Fitch capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Diego Sanchez | Jon Fitch |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 9 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:36 | 9:40 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 1 243 | 1 463 |
| ELO Change | -65 | +65 |
Jon Fitch dominated Diego Sanchez on the ground with 3 vs 2 takedowns, 9:40 of control time, 13 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Diego Sanchez | Jon Fitch |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 168 | 102 |
| Activity ELO | 1 205 | 1 276 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +53 |
Jon Fitch demonstrated solid activity levels with 102 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jon Fitch capitalized on this activity level, while Diego Sanchez's 168-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Diego Sanchez | Jon Fitch |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 7 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 130 | 1 224 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +58 |
Jon Fitch continued building serious momentum with a 7-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Diego Sanchez's now at 0.
| Metric | Diego Sanchez | Jon Fitch |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 074 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.