September 21, 2007
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Diego Saraiva | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 2 |
| Experience Gap | 1 | -1 |
| Experience ELO | 910 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +30 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (3 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Diego Saraiva | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 938 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Diego Saraiva | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 880 | 1 006 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Jeremy Stephens earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Diego Saraiva | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 50 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 29 | 90 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 71 | 109 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 880 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | -41 | +41 |
Jeremy Stephens controlled the striking exchanges with 109 vs 71 total strikes, 50 vs 11 significant strikes, 55.6% vs 37.9% accuracy. Jeremy Stephens capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Diego Saraiva | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:11 | 9:51 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 39 |
| Ground ELO | 839 | 1 023 |
| ELO Change | -66 | +66 |
Jeremy Stephens controlled Diego Saraiva on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 9:51 of control time, 39 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Diego Saraiva | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 77 | 119 |
| Activity ELO | 942 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +49 |
Jeremy Stephens demonstrated solid activity levels with 119 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jeremy Stephens capitalized on this activity level, while Diego Saraiva's 77-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Diego Saraiva | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 939 | 1 005 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +22 |
Jeremy Stephens started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Diego Saraiva is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Diego Saraiva | Jeremy Stephens |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 938 | 1 002 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.