July 6, 2007
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Diego Saraiva | Jorge Gurgel |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 2 | 3 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 938 | 1 037 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (2 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Diego Saraiva | Jorge Gurgel |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 958 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Diego Saraiva | Jorge Gurgel |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 915 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | -39 | +39 |
Jorge Gurgel earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Diego Saraiva | Jorge Gurgel |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 49 | 67 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 166 | 230 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 78 | 120 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 921 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Jorge Gurgel controlled the striking exchanges with 120 vs 78 total strikes, 67 vs 49 significant strikes. Jorge Gurgel capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Diego Saraiva | Jorge Gurgel |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:03 | 5:14 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 16 |
| Ground ELO | 905 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +53 |
Jorge Gurgel controlled Diego Saraiva on the ground with 5:14 of control time, 16 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Diego Saraiva | Jorge Gurgel |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 154 | 287 |
| Activity ELO | 961 | 1 061 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Jorge Gurgel demonstrated standard activity with 287 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Jorge Gurgel capitalized on this activity level, while Diego Saraiva's 154-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Diego Saraiva | Jorge Gurgel |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 959 | 1 027 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +23 |
Jorge Gurgel extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Diego Saraiva is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Diego Saraiva | Jorge Gurgel |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 958 | 1 022 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.