February 27, 2003
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Din Thomas | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 4 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 020 | 976 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -34 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (4 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Din Thomas | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 003 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Din Thomas | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Split | Decision - Split |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 008 | 1 034 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
The controversial Decision - Split reflected a closely contested battle, with Din Thomas receiving reduced bonuses due to the lack of clear domination.
| Metric | Din Thomas | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 29 | 26 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 61 | 81 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 59 | 42 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 961 | 926 |
| ELO Change | +29 | -29 |
Din Thomas edged the striking exchanges with 47.5% vs 32.1% accuracy. Din Thomas capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Din Thomas | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 28 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:45 | 1:26 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 000 | 1 076 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -30 |
Din Thomas did not secure a significant ground advantage against Matt Serra on the ground with 0 takedowns, 1:45 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Din Thomas | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 155 | 155 |
| Activity ELO | 1 065 | 1 024 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -22 |
Din Thomas demonstrated solid activity levels with 155 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Din Thomas capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Serra's 155-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Din Thomas | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 009 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -23 |
Din Thomas started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Serra is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Din Thomas | Matt Serra |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 003 | 983 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

