November 17, 2006
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dokonjonosuke Mishima | Joe Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 972 | 1 066 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Joe Stevenson's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Joe Stevenson for the expected result. Had Dokonjonosuke Mishima pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dokonjonosuke Mishima | Joe Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dokonjonosuke Mishima | Joe Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 2:07 | 2:07 |
| Win Type ELO | 963 | 1 104 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +65 |
Joe Stevenson earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 2:07, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Dokonjonosuke Mishima | Joe Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 5 | 1 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 6 | 2 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 980 | 1 041 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
Joe Stevenson slightly outperformed the striking exchanges with 100.0% vs 20.0% accuracy. Joe Stevenson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dokonjonosuke Mishima | Joe Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:51 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 972 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Joe Stevenson edged out Dokonjonosuke Mishima on the ground with 0 takedowns, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Dokonjonosuke Mishima | Joe Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 134 |
| Activity ELO | 984 | 1 111 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +33 |
Joe Stevenson demonstrated solid activity levels with 134 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Joe Stevenson capitalized on this activity level, while Dokonjonosuke Mishima's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dokonjonosuke Mishima | Joe Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 2 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 054 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +23 |
Joe Stevenson extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dokonjonosuke Mishima is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dokonjonosuke Mishima | Joe Stevenson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.