July 11, 2015
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dominic Waters | George Sullivan |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 971 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
George Sullivan's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding George Sullivan for the expected result. Had Dominic Waters pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dominic Waters | George Sullivan |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 980 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dominic Waters | George Sullivan |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 969 | 1 128 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
George Sullivan earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Dominic Waters | George Sullivan |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 54 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 53 | 96 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 32 | 103 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 960 | 1 143 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
George Sullivan dominated the striking exchanges with 103 vs 32 total strikes, 54 vs 13 significant strikes, 56.3% vs 24.5% accuracy. George Sullivan capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dominic Waters | George Sullivan |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 5 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 5:25 | 6:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 23 |
| Ground ELO | 920 | 1 019 |
| ELO Change | -80 | +80 |
George Sullivan controlled Dominic Waters on the ground with 2 takedowns, 6:03 of control time, 23 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Dominic Waters | George Sullivan |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 85 |
| Activity ELO | 981 | 1 092 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +57 |
George Sullivan demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 85 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, George Sullivan capitalized on this activity level, while Dominic Waters's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dominic Waters | George Sullivan |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 981 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +21 |
George Sullivan started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dominic Waters is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dominic Waters | George Sullivan |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 980 | 1 042 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.