May 7, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dominic Waters | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 931 | 1 040 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +27 |
Leon Edwards's 2-fight experience advantage (5 vs 3 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Leon Edwards for the expected result. Had Dominic Waters pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dominic Waters | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 949 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Dominic Waters | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 939 | 1 161 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Leon Edwards earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Dominic Waters | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 3 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 16 | 35 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 39 | 55 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 895 | 1 108 |
| ELO Change | -32 | +32 |
Leon Edwards controlled the striking exchanges with 24 vs 3 significant strikes, 68.6% vs 18.8% accuracy. Leon Edwards capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dominic Waters | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 12 | 3 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:15 | 3:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 15 |
| Ground ELO | 881 | 1 029 |
| ELO Change | -30 | +30 |
Leon Edwards edged out Dominic Waters on the ground with 2 takedowns, 3:11 of control time, 15 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Dominic Waters | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 162 | 141 |
| Activity ELO | 958 | 1 085 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +33 |
Leon Edwards demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Leon Edwards capitalized on this activity level, while Dominic Waters's 162-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dominic Waters | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 951 | 1 030 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +20 |
Leon Edwards started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dominic Waters is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dominic Waters | Leon Edwards |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 949 | 1 021 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.