September 25, 2020
UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout
Title Fight
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Dominick Reyes | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 8 | 15 |
| Experience Gap | -7 | 7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 235 | 1 279 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Jan Blachowicz's 7-fight experience advantage (15 vs 8 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jan Blachowicz for the expected result. Had Dominick Reyes pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Dominick Reyes | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | Yes | Yes |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 107 | 1 184 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +65 |
Title fight! The championship stakes amplified the pressure. Jan Blachowicz captured the UFC Light Heavyweight Title Bout with a title bonus.
| Metric | Dominick Reyes | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 4:36 | 4:36 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 447 | 1 609 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +73 |
Jan Blachowicz gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Dominick Reyes | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 21 | 41 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 51 | 89 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 21 | 41 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 369 | 1 602 |
| ELO Change | -83 | +83 |
Jan Blachowicz controlled the striking exchanges with 41 vs 21 total strikes, 41 vs 21 significant strikes, including 1 devastating knockdown. Jan Blachowicz capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Dominick Reyes | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 226 | 1 456 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +28 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Dominick Reyes | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 231 | 224 |
| Activity ELO | 1 213 | 1 365 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +18 |
Jan Blachowicz demonstrated standard activity with 224 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Jan Blachowicz capitalized on this activity level, while Dominick Reyes's 231-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Dominick Reyes | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 188 | 1 202 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +33 |
Jan Blachowicz extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Dominick Reyes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Dominick Reyes | Jan Blachowicz |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Light Heavyweight | Light Heavyweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 091 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.