September 26, 2014
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 15 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 14 | -14 |
| Experience ELO | 1 306 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
Donald Cerrone's 14-fight experience advantage (15 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Donald Cerrone for the expected result. Had Eddie Alvarez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 167 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 511 | 996 |
| ELO Change | +4 | -4 |
Donald Cerrone earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 88 | 48 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 166 | 138 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 101 | 64 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 427 | 989 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
Donald Cerrone controlled the striking exchanges with 101 vs 64 total strikes, 88 vs 48 significant strikes, 53.0% vs 34.8% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Donald Cerrone capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:57 | 0:37 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 6 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 414 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +10 | -10 |
Donald Cerrone landed 1 knockdown followed by 6 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 73 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 445 | 997 |
| ELO Change | +9 | -3 |
Donald Cerrone demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 73 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Donald Cerrone capitalized on this activity level, while Eddie Alvarez's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 5 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 226 | 990 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -10 |
Donald Cerrone continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Eddie Alvarez's now at 0.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Eddie Alvarez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 166 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.