April 18, 2014
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Edson Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 4 | -4 |
| Experience ELO | 1 259 | 1 148 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Donald Cerrone's 4-fight experience advantage (13 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Donald Cerrone for the expected result. Had Edson Barboza pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Edson Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 132 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Edson Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 3:15 | 3:15 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 425 | 1 240 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -30 |
Donald Cerrone earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 3:15, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Edson Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 11 | 28 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 20 | 54 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 11 | 28 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 347 | 1 223 |
| ELO Change | +48 | -48 |
Edson Barboza controlled the striking through superior volume (28 vs 11 total strikes), significant strike advantage (28 vs 11). However, since Edson Barboza lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Donald Cerrone's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Edson Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:21 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 393 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Edson Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 84 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 1 377 | 1 196 |
| ELO Change | +41 | -14 |
Donald Cerrone demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 84 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Donald Cerrone capitalized on this activity level, while Edson Barboza's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Edson Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 173 | 1 119 |
| ELO Change | +27 | -21 |
Donald Cerrone extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Edson Barboza is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Edson Barboza |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 131 | 1 090 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.