November 15, 2013
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Evan Dunham |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | -1 | 1 |
| Experience ELO | 1 213 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -28 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (11 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Evan Dunham |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 094 | 1 044 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Evan Dunham |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:49 | 3:49 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 343 | 1 121 |
| ELO Change | +37 | -24 |
Donald Cerrone earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:49, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Evan Dunham was submitted.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Evan Dunham |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 32 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 67 | 72 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 34 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 254 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | +53 | -53 |
Donald Cerrone controlled the striking exchanges with 32 vs 24 significant strikes, 47.8% vs 33.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Donald Cerrone capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Evan Dunham |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:21 | 1:29 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 9 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 363 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | +121 | -121 |
Donald Cerrone dominated Evan Dunham on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 2:21 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Evan Dunham |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 81 | 183 |
| Activity ELO | 1 316 | 1 171 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -16 |
Donald Cerrone demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 81 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Donald Cerrone capitalized on this activity level, while Evan Dunham's 183-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Evan Dunham |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 128 | 1 072 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -20 |
Donald Cerrone started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Evan Dunham is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Evan Dunham |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 093 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | +20 | -20 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.