July 1, 2022
Welterweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 38 | 40 |
| Experience Gap | -2 | 2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 120 | 1 156 |
| ELO Change | -34 | +34 |
Jim Miller's 2-fight experience advantage (40 vs 38 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Jim Miller for the expected result. Had Donald Cerrone pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 074 | 1 099 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 1:32 | 1:32 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 286 | 1 364 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +73 |
Jim Miller earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 1:32, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Donald Cerrone was submitted.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 21 | 24 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 33 | 36 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 24 | 35 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 099 | 1 226 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Jim Miller slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Jim Miller capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:24 | 1:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 7 |
| Ground ELO | 1 064 | 1 282 |
| ELO Change | -136 | +136 |
Jim Miller dominated Donald Cerrone on the ground with 1 vs 0 takedowns, 1:03 of control time, 7 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 420 | 133 |
| Activity ELO | 1 350 | 1 341 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +52 |
Jim Miller demonstrated solid activity levels with 133 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Jim Miller capitalized on this activity level, while Donald Cerrone's 420-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 157 | 1 159 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +32 |
Jim Miller extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Donald Cerrone is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Jim Miller |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 069 | 1 097 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

