September 13, 2019
Lightweight Bout
Click any category to learn how it's calculated.
Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 33 | 6 |
| Experience Gap | 27 | -27 |
| Experience ELO | 1 259 | 1 339 |
| ELO Change | -37 | +103 |
Justin Gaethje overcame a 27-fight experience disadvantage (6 vs 33 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Donald Cerrone.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 161 | 1 083 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:18 | 4:18 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 480 | 1 541 |
| ELO Change | -55 | +119 |
Justin Gaethje earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:18, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 17 | 40 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 52 | 61 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 17 | 40 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 326 | 1 471 |
| ELO Change | -155 | +155 |
Justin Gaethje controlled the striking exchanges with 40 vs 17 total strikes, 40 vs 17 significant strikes, 65.6% vs 32.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Justin Gaethje capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 337 | 1 215 |
| ELO Change | -89 | +89 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 98 | 168 |
| Activity ELO | 1 471 | 1 189 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +66 |
Justin Gaethje demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Justin Gaethje capitalized on this activity level, while Donald Cerrone's 98-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 258 | 1 114 |
| ELO Change | -33 | +43 |
Justin Gaethje extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Donald Cerrone is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Justin Gaethje |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 152 | 1 079 |
| ELO Change | -29 | +29 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

