Donald Cerrone vs Justin Gaethje

September 13, 2019

Lightweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1306
(-58)
Donald Cerrone
Winner: Justin Gaethje
KO/TKO
Round 1 • 4:18

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Donald Cerrone-58
Justin Gaethje+79
1254
(+79)
Justin Gaethje

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Donald Cerrone: -37Justin Gaethje: +103

Performance Statistics

MetricDonald CerroneJustin Gaethje
Total UFC Fights336
Experience Gap27-27
Experience ELO1 2591 339
ELO Change-37+103
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What Happened

Justin Gaethje overcame a 27-fight experience disadvantage (6 vs 33 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Donald Cerrone.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Donald Cerrone: -29Justin Gaethje: +29

Performance Statistics

MetricDonald CerroneJustin Gaethje
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 1611 083
ELO Change-29+29
💡

What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Donald Cerrone: -55Justin Gaethje: +119

Performance Statistics

MetricDonald CerroneJustin Gaethje
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round11
Time of Finish4:184:18
Win Type ELO1 4801 541
ELO Change-55+119
💡

What Happened

Justin Gaethje earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:18, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Donald Cerrone: -155Justin Gaethje: +155

Performance Statistics

MetricDonald CerroneJustin Gaethje
Significant Strikes Landed1740
Significant Strikes Attempted5261
Total Strikes Landed1740
Knockdowns Scored01
Striking ELO1 3261 471
ELO Change-155+155
💡

What Happened

Justin Gaethje controlled the striking exchanges with 40 vs 17 total strikes, 40 vs 17 significant strikes, 65.6% vs 32.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Justin Gaethje capitalized on this striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Donald Cerrone: -89Justin Gaethje: +89

Performance Statistics

MetricDonald CerroneJustin Gaethje
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted00
Ground Control Time0:000:04
Ground Strikes Landed02
Ground ELO1 3371 215
ELO Change-89+89
💡

What Happened

Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Donald Cerrone: -38Justin Gaethje: +66

Performance Statistics

MetricDonald CerroneJustin Gaethje
Days Since Last Fight98168
Activity ELO1 4711 189
ELO Change-38+66
💡

What Happened

Justin Gaethje demonstrated solid activity levels with 168 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Justin Gaethje capitalized on this activity level, while Donald Cerrone's 98-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Donald Cerrone: -33Justin Gaethje: +43

Performance Statistics

MetricDonald CerroneJustin Gaethje
Win Streak03
Win Streak ELO1 2581 114
ELO Change-33+43
💡

What Happened

Justin Gaethje extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Donald Cerrone is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Donald Cerrone: -29Justin Gaethje: +29

Performance Statistics

MetricDonald CerroneJustin Gaethje
Weight ClassLightweightLightweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 1521 079
ELO Change-29+29
💡

What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.