Donald Cerrone vs Matt Brown

December 9, 2016

Welterweight Bout

Click any category to learn how it's calculated.

1451
(+14)
Donald Cerrone
Winner: Donald Cerrone
KO/TKO
Round 3 • 0:34

No Predictions Available

Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025

C-ELO Evolution

Donald Cerrone+14
Matt Brown-11
1160
(-11)
Matt Brown

C-ELO™ Evolution Comparison

Fight Stats & ELO Performance

Experience ELO
ELO Changes
Donald Cerrone: +11Matt Brown: -8

Performance Statistics

MetricDonald CerroneMatt Brown
Total UFC Fights2323
Experience Gap00
Experience ELO1 3971 113
ELO Change+11-8
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What Happened

Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (23 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.

Title Fight ELO
ELO Changes
Donald Cerrone: +11Matt Brown: -11

Performance Statistics

MetricDonald CerroneMatt Brown
Title Fight ?NoNo
Title Fight ELO1 2531 060
ELO Change+11-11
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What Happened

This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.

Win Type ELO
ELO Changes
Donald Cerrone: +31Matt Brown: -15

Performance Statistics

MetricDonald CerroneMatt Brown
Fight OutcomeKO/TKOKO/TKO
Last Round33
Time of Finish0:340:34
Win Type ELO1 6431 336
ELO Change+31-15
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What Happened

Donald Cerrone gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.

Striking ELO
ELO Changes
Donald Cerrone: +18Matt Brown: -18

Performance Statistics

MetricDonald CerroneMatt Brown
Significant Strikes Landed6370
Significant Strikes Attempted147128
Total Strikes Landed6473
Knockdowns Scored21
Striking ELO1 5991 132
ELO Change+18-18
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What Happened

Matt Brown controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (70 vs 63), superior accuracy (54.7% vs 42.9%), 1 knockdown. However, since Matt Brown lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Donald Cerrone's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.

Ground ELO
ELO Changes
Donald Cerrone: +6Matt Brown: -6

Performance Statistics

MetricDonald CerroneMatt Brown
Takedowns Landed00
Takedowns Attempted32
Ground Control Time0:350:04
Ground Strikes Landed00
Ground ELO1 4991 166
ELO Change+6-6
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What Happened

Donald Cerrone did not secure a significant ground advantage against Matt Brown on the ground with 0:35 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.

Activity ELO
ELO Changes
Donald Cerrone: +15Matt Brown: -6

Performance Statistics

MetricDonald CerroneMatt Brown
Days Since Last Fight113134
Activity ELO1 6031 269
ELO Change+15-6
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What Happened

Donald Cerrone demonstrated solid activity levels with 113 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Donald Cerrone capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Brown's 134-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.

Win Streak ELO
ELO Changes
Donald Cerrone: +14Matt Brown: -10

Performance Statistics

MetricDonald CerroneMatt Brown
Win Streak40
Win Streak ELO1 3721 147
ELO Change+14-10
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What Happened

Donald Cerrone extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Brown is back at 0 with this loss.

Basic/Category ELO
ELO Changes
Donald Cerrone: +12Matt Brown: -12

Performance Statistics

MetricDonald CerroneMatt Brown
Weight ClassWelterweightWelterweight
Double Championship FightNoNo
Basic/Category ELO1 2451 056
ELO Change+12-12
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What Happened

This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.