December 9, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 23 | 23 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 397 | 1 113 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -8 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (23 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 253 | 1 060 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -11 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 0:34 | 0:34 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 643 | 1 336 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -15 |
Donald Cerrone gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 3, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 63 | 70 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 147 | 128 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 64 | 73 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 2 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 599 | 1 132 |
| ELO Change | +18 | -18 |
Matt Brown controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (70 vs 63), superior accuracy (54.7% vs 42.9%), 1 knockdown. However, since Matt Brown lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Donald Cerrone's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 3 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:35 | 0:04 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 499 | 1 166 |
| ELO Change | +6 | -6 |
Donald Cerrone did not secure a significant ground advantage against Matt Brown on the ground with 0:35 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 113 | 134 |
| Activity ELO | 1 603 | 1 269 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -6 |
Donald Cerrone demonstrated solid activity levels with 113 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Donald Cerrone capitalized on this activity level, while Matt Brown's 134-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 4 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 372 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -10 |
Donald Cerrone extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Matt Brown is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Matt Brown |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 245 | 1 056 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

