November 9, 2018
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Mike Perry |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 29 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 20 | -20 |
| Experience ELO | 1 265 | 1 123 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
Donald Cerrone's 20-fight experience advantage (29 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Donald Cerrone for the expected result. Had Mike Perry pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Mike Perry |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 178 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Mike Perry |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:46 | 4:46 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 491 | 1 218 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -18 |
Donald Cerrone earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 4:46, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Mike Perry |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 9 | 11 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 13 | 20 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 10 | 11 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 391 | 1 201 |
| ELO Change | +12 | -12 |
Mike Perry controlled the striking through superior accuracy (55.0% vs 69.2%). However, since Mike Perry lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Donald Cerrone's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Mike Perry |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:40 | 0:58 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 1 |
| Ground ELO | 1 369 | 1 102 |
| ELO Change | +17 | -17 |
Donald Cerrone edged out Mike Perry on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:40 of control time, earning solid ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Mike Perry |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 141 | 127 |
| Activity ELO | 1 489 | 1 195 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -7 |
Donald Cerrone demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Donald Cerrone capitalized on this activity level, while Mike Perry's 127-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Mike Perry |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 271 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | +11 | -10 |
Donald Cerrone started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Mike Perry is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Mike Perry |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 168 | 1 031 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.