February 4, 2011
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -8 | 8 |
| Experience ELO | 1 097 | 980 |
| ELO Change | +97 | -97 |
Donald Cerrone overcame a 8-fight experience disadvantage (1 vs 9 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Paul Kelly.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 023 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:48 | 3:48 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 091 | 1 087 |
| ELO Change | +91 | -59 |
Donald Cerrone earned a finish with a Submission in round 2 at 3:48, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Paul Kelly was submitted.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 37 | 22 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 74 | 75 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 62 | 29 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 051 | 1 062 |
| ELO Change | +51 | -51 |
Donald Cerrone controlled the striking exchanges with 62 vs 29 total strikes, 37 vs 22 significant strikes, 50.0% vs 29.3% accuracy. Donald Cerrone capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 4 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 3:31 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 9 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 219 | 925 |
| ELO Change | +219 | -219 |
Donald Cerrone dominated Paul Kelly on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 3:31 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 77 |
| Activity ELO | 1 028 | 1 098 |
| ELO Change | +28 | -28 |
Donald Cerrone demonstrated incredible warrior mentality with a tournament-style turnaround with within null days since his last fight, earning one of the highest possible activity bonuses for the lightning-quick return. As the winner, Donald Cerrone capitalized on this activity level, while Paul Kelly's 77-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 026 | 1 026 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -24 |
Donald Cerrone started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Paul Kelly is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Paul Kelly |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 023 | 1 015 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -23 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.