August 27, 2013
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 10 | 13 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 183 | 1 205 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Rafael Dos Anjos's 3-fight experience advantage (13 vs 10 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Rafael Dos Anjos for the expected result. Had Donald Cerrone pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 074 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 306 | 1 404 |
| ELO Change | -40 | +40 |
Rafael Dos Anjos earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 40 | 39 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 80 | 109 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 43 | 58 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 201 | 1 321 |
| ELO Change | -55 | +55 |
Rafael Dos Anjos controlled the striking exchanges with 35.8% vs 50.0% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Rafael Dos Anjos capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 2 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:00 | 3:50 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 8 |
| Ground ELO | 1 242 | 1 424 |
| ELO Change | -58 | +58 |
Rafael Dos Anjos landed 1 knockdown followed by 8 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 95 | 102 |
| Activity ELO | 1 267 | 1 341 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +52 |
Rafael Dos Anjos demonstrated solid activity levels with 102 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Rafael Dos Anjos capitalized on this activity level, while Donald Cerrone's 95-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 5 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 106 | 1 179 |
| ELO Change | -20 | +38 |
Rafael Dos Anjos continued building serious momentum with a 5-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Donald Cerrone's now at 0.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Rafael Dos Anjos |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 073 | 1 120 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

