August 19, 2016
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 22 | 19 |
| Experience Gap | 3 | -3 |
| Experience ELO | 1 386 | 1 168 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
Donald Cerrone's 3-fight experience advantage (22 vs 19 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Donald Cerrone for the expected result. Had Rick Story pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 242 | 1 095 |
| ELO Change | +14 | -14 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:02 | 2:02 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 612 | 1 296 |
| ELO Change | +30 | -15 |
Donald Cerrone gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 45 | 17 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 73 | 51 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 48 | 19 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 581 | 1 290 |
| ELO Change | +60 | -60 |
Donald Cerrone controlled the striking exchanges with 48 vs 19 total strikes, 45 vs 17 significant strikes, 61.6% vs 33.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Donald Cerrone capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 1 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 5 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:43 | 1:42 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 5 | 2 |
| Ground ELO | 1 493 | 1 297 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -24 |
Donald Cerrone landed 1 knockdown followed by 5 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 63 | 83 |
| Activity ELO | 1 588 | 1 264 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -6 |
Donald Cerrone demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 63 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Donald Cerrone capitalized on this activity level, while Rick Story's 83-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 358 | 1 160 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -11 |
Donald Cerrone extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Rick Story is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Rick Story |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 233 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.