July 28, 2017
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 25 | 18 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 310 | 1 334 |
| ELO Change | -38 | +55 |
Robbie Lawler overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (18 vs 25 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Donald Cerrone.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 204 | 1 275 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 522 | 1 538 |
| ELO Change | -53 | +53 |
Robbie Lawler earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 82 | 77 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 166 | 156 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 99 | 85 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 366 | 1 461 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
Donald Cerrone controlled the striking through solid significant strike edge (82 vs 77). However, since Donald Cerrone lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Robbie Lawler's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 10 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 1:34 | 0:21 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 392 | 1 384 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +24 |
Robbie Lawler did not secure a significant ground advantage against Donald Cerrone on the ground with 0 takedowns, 0:21 of control time, with almost no grappling bonus.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 182 | 364 |
| Activity ELO | 1 536 | 1 416 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +31 |
Robbie Lawler demonstrated standard activity with 364 days since his last fight, earning no activity bonus. As the winner, Robbie Lawler capitalized on this activity level, while Donald Cerrone's 182-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 1 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 310 | 1 256 |
| ELO Change | -28 | +30 |
Robbie Lawler started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Donald Cerrone is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Robbie Lawler |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 190 | 1 174 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.
Why It Matters:
Extra bonuses are awarded for title victories and undefeated streaks. These bonuses are only calculated for certain fighters with notable performances. Only UFC champions and undefeated fighters (in the UFC) can receive these bonuses.