June 7, 2019
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 32 | 16 |
| Experience Gap | 16 | -16 |
| Experience ELO | 1 296 | 1 451 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +50 |
Tony Ferguson overcame a 16-fight experience disadvantage (16 vs 32 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Donald Cerrone.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 190 | 1 259 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage | TKO - Doctor's Stoppage |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 535 | 1 626 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +22 |
Tony Ferguson gained a finish with a TKO - Doctor's Stoppage in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 68 | 104 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 185 | 200 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 68 | 104 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 481 | 1 523 |
| ELO Change | -35 | +35 |
Tony Ferguson controlled the striking exchanges with 104 vs 68 total strikes, 104 vs 68 significant strikes, 52.0% vs 36.8% accuracy. Tony Ferguson capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:07 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 426 | 1 537 |
| ELO Change | -16 | +16 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 35 | 245 |
| Activity ELO | 1 509 | 1 507 |
| ELO Change | -24 | +31 |
Tony Ferguson demonstrated standard activity with 245 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Tony Ferguson capitalized on this activity level, while Donald Cerrone's 35-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 12 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 291 | 1 554 |
| ELO Change | -12 | +84 |
Tony Ferguson extended his incredible 12-fight win streak, earning one of the highest possible momentum bonuses for sustained dominance. This elite-level consistency triggered exponential streak bonuses, while Donald Cerrone is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Tony Ferguson |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 181 | 1 250 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.