February 17, 2018
Welterweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Yancy Medeiros |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 27 | 12 |
| Experience Gap | 15 | -15 |
| Experience ELO | 1 283 | 1 125 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
Donald Cerrone's 15-fight experience advantage (27 vs 12 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Donald Cerrone for the expected result. Had Yancy Medeiros pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Yancy Medeiros |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 190 | 1 058 |
| ELO Change | +15 | -15 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Yancy Medeiros |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:58 | 4:58 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 520 | 1 344 |
| ELO Change | +73 | -34 |
Donald Cerrone earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:58, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Yancy Medeiros |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 28 | 25 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 57 | 79 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 28 | 26 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 3 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 420 | 1 151 |
| ELO Change | +214 | -214 |
Donald Cerrone dominated the striking exchanges with 49.1% vs 31.6% accuracy, including 3 devastating knockdowns. Donald Cerrone capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Yancy Medeiros |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:21 | 0:17 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 379 | 1 168 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Donald Cerrone landed 3 knockdowns followed by 3 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Yancy Medeiros |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 121 | 78 |
| Activity ELO | 1 510 | 1 190 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -6 |
Donald Cerrone demonstrated solid activity levels with 121 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Donald Cerrone capitalized on this activity level, while Yancy Medeiros's 78-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Yancy Medeiros |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 289 | 1 093 |
| ELO Change | +13 | -11 |
Donald Cerrone started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Yancy Medeiros is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Donald Cerrone | Yancy Medeiros |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Welterweight | Welterweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 178 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | +16 | -16 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.