June 22, 2007
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Doug Evans | Roger Huerta |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 1 | 4 |
| Experience Gap | -3 | 3 |
| Experience ELO | 975 | 1 103 |
| ELO Change | -25 | +25 |
Roger Huerta's 3-fight experience advantage (4 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Roger Huerta for the expected result. Had Doug Evans pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Doug Evans | Roger Huerta |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 983 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Doug Evans | Roger Huerta |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 3:30 | 3:30 |
| Win Type ELO | 977 | 1 220 |
| ELO Change | -23 | +46 |
Roger Huerta gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Doug Evans | Roger Huerta |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 34 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 51 | 78 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 36 | 60 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 964 | 1 211 |
| ELO Change | -36 | +36 |
Roger Huerta edged the striking exchanges with 60 vs 36 total strikes, 34 vs 20 significant strikes. Roger Huerta capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Doug Evans | Roger Huerta |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 5 | 6 |
| Ground Control Time | 2:52 | 3:03 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 2 | 13 |
| Ground ELO | 979 | 1 240 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +21 |
Roger Huerta edged out Doug Evans on the ground with 0 takedowns, 3:03 of control time, 13 ground strikes, earning solid ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Doug Evans | Roger Huerta |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | N/A | 77 |
| Activity ELO | 986 | 1 155 |
| ELO Change | -14 | +43 |
Roger Huerta demonstrated excellent fighting frequency with 77 days since his last fight, earning a solid activity bonus for maintaining rhythm. As the winner, Roger Huerta capitalized on this activity level, while Doug Evans's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Doug Evans | Roger Huerta |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 4 |
| Win Streak ELO | 983 | 1 094 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +23 |
Roger Huerta extended his 4-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Doug Evans is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Doug Evans | Roger Huerta |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 983 | 1 077 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +17 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

