March 5, 2021
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Drew Dober | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 16 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 7 | -7 |
| Experience ELO | 1 132 | 1 293 |
| ELO Change | -22 | +32 |
Islam Makhachev overcame a 7-fight experience disadvantage (9 vs 16 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Drew Dober.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 072 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 1:37 | 1:37 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 365 | 1 432 |
| ELO Change | -49 | +73 |
Islam Makhachev earned a finish with a Submission in round 3 at 1:37, earning finishing bonuses for the submission. Drew Dober was submitted.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 10 | 15 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 20 | 25 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 14 | 102 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 308 | 1 375 |
| ELO Change | -62 | +62 |
Islam Makhachev dominated the striking exchanges with 102 vs 14 total strikes, 15 vs 10 significant strikes, 60.0% vs 50.0% accuracy. Islam Makhachev capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 3 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 4 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:12 | 9:26 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 3 | 9 |
| Ground ELO | 1 140 | 1 525 |
| ELO Change | -47 | +47 |
Islam Makhachev dominated Drew Dober on the ground with 3 vs 0 takedowns, 9:26 of control time, 9 ground strikes, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 298 | 547 |
| Activity ELO | 1 178 | 1 220 |
| ELO Change | -21 | +19 |
Islam Makhachev demonstrated extended layoff with 547 days since his last fight, earning reduced bonuses due to inactivity rust. As the winner, Islam Makhachev capitalized on this activity level, while Drew Dober's 298-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 7 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 107 | 1 242 |
| ELO Change | -17 | +49 |
Islam Makhachev continued building serious momentum with a 7-fight win streak, earning a strong bonus as streak bonuses escalate. Drew Dober's now at 0.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Islam Makhachev |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 072 | 1 147 |
| ELO Change | -19 | +19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.