December 12, 2014
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Drew Dober | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 3 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | -6 | 6 |
| Experience ELO | 967 | 977 |
| ELO Change | +57 | -41 |
Drew Dober overcame a 6-fight experience disadvantage (3 vs 9 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Jamie Varner.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 981 | 952 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Submission | Submission |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:52 | 1:52 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 030 | 1 010 |
| ELO Change | +112 | -59 |
Drew Dober earned an early finish with a Submission in round 1 at 1:52, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round submission.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 5 | 4 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 12 | 10 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 7 | 4 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 977 | 955 |
| ELO Change | +36 | -36 |
Drew Dober slightly outperformed the striking exchanges. Drew Dober capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 2 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:40 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 086 | 924 |
| ELO Change | +147 | -147 |
Drew Dober dominated Jamie Varner on the ground with 0:40 of control time, 1 ground strike, earning massive ground ELO bonuses. The submission finish significantly amplified the grappling rewards.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 197 | 204 |
| Activity ELO | 990 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -25 |
Drew Dober demonstrated standard activity with 197 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Drew Dober capitalized on this activity level, while Jamie Varner's 204-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 984 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -23 |
Drew Dober started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jamie Varner is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Jamie Varner |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 981 | 951 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.