September 9, 2016
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Drew Dober | Jason Gonzalez |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 7 | 1 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 012 | 967 |
| ELO Change | +33 | -33 |
Drew Dober's 6-fight experience advantage (7 vs 1 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Drew Dober for the expected result. Had Jason Gonzalez pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Jason Gonzalez |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 007 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Jason Gonzalez |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:45 | 1:45 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 128 | 963 |
| ELO Change | +90 | -37 |
Drew Dober earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:45, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Jason Gonzalez |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 10 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 41 | 30 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 23 | 10 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 087 | 887 |
| ELO Change | +113 | -113 |
Drew Dober controlled the striking exchanges with 20 vs 10 significant strikes, 48.8% vs 33.3% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Drew Dober capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Jason Gonzalez |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:11 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 124 | 960 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Jason Gonzalez |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 252 | N/A |
| Activity ELO | 1 027 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -21 |
Drew Dober demonstrated standard activity with 252 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Drew Dober capitalized on this activity level, while Jason Gonzalez's null-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Jason Gonzalez |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 016 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -22 |
Drew Dober extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jason Gonzalez is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Jason Gonzalez |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 007 | 978 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -22 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

