August 24, 2018
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Drew Dober | Jon Tuck |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 11 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 2 | -2 |
| Experience ELO | 1 077 | 962 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -26 |
Drew Dober's 2-fight experience advantage (11 vs 9 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Drew Dober for the expected result. Had Jon Tuck pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Jon Tuck |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 046 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Jon Tuck |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | Decision - Unanimous | Decision - Unanimous |
| Last Round | 3 | 3 |
| Time of Finish | 5:00 | 5:00 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 216 | 1 122 |
| ELO Change | +40 | -40 |
Drew Dober earned a clear Decision - Unanimous, receiving full decision bonuses for controlling the fight across all rounds. Of course, a finish would have yielded even greater rewards.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Jon Tuck |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 60 | 33 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 136 | 75 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 122 | 39 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 170 | 1 043 |
| ELO Change | +39 | -39 |
Drew Dober dominated the striking exchanges with 122 vs 39 total strikes, 60 vs 33 significant strikes. Drew Dober capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Jon Tuck |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 2 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 2 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 7:47 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 21 | 3 |
| Ground ELO | 1 207 | 1 039 |
| ELO Change | +70 | -70 |
Drew Dober controlled Jon Tuck on the ground with 2 vs 0 takedowns, 7:47 of control time, 21 ground strikes, earning substantial ground ELO bonuses.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Jon Tuck |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 210 | 434 |
| Activity ELO | 1 086 | 1 003 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -18 |
Drew Dober demonstrated standard activity with 210 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Drew Dober capitalized on this activity level, while Jon Tuck's 434-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Jon Tuck |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 066 | 988 |
| ELO Change | +25 | -19 |
Drew Dober extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Jon Tuck is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Jon Tuck |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 046 | 979 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

