December 16, 2022
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Drew Dober | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 20 | 20 |
| Experience Gap | 0 | 0 |
| Experience ELO | 1 185 | 1 134 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -21 |
Both fighters entered with identical experience levels (20 fights each). On this fight, close to zero experience-based adjustments were applied.
| Metric | Drew Dober | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 107 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Drew Dober | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 2 | 2 |
| Time of Finish | 2:45 | 2:45 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 455 | 1 267 |
| ELO Change | +64 | -31 |
Drew Dober gained a finish with a KO/TKO in round 2, earning finishing bonuses.
| Metric | Drew Dober | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 34 | 73 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 121 | 142 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 34 | 75 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 424 | 1 214 |
| ELO Change | +65 | -65 |
King Green controlled the striking through overwhelming volume (75 vs 34 total strikes), significant strike advantage (73 vs 34), superior accuracy (51.4% vs 28.1%). However, since King Green lost the overall fight, his striking superiority couldn't be converted into ELO bonuses. Drew Dober's positive striking ELO reflects the overall victory rather than striking dominance.
| Metric | Drew Dober | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 1 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:07 | 0:11 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 1 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 180 | 1 157 |
| ELO Change | +69 | -69 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Drew Dober | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 141 | 294 |
| Activity ELO | 1 248 | 1 275 |
| ELO Change | +55 | -27 |
Drew Dober demonstrated solid activity levels with 141 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Drew Dober capitalized on this activity level, while King Green's 294-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Drew Dober | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 3 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 149 | 1 081 |
| ELO Change | +26 | -20 |
Drew Dober extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. King Green is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Drew Dober | King Green |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 107 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | +19 | -19 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

