June 28, 2019
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Drew Dober | Marco Polo Reyes |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 13 | 7 |
| Experience Gap | 6 | -6 |
| Experience ELO | 1 079 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +31 | -31 |
Drew Dober's 6-fight experience advantage (13 vs 7 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Drew Dober for the expected result. Had Marco Polo Reyes pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Marco Polo Reyes |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 049 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Marco Polo Reyes |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:07 | 1:07 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 268 | 1 100 |
| ELO Change | +88 | -37 |
Drew Dober earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:07, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Marco Polo Reyes |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 16 | 5 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 27 | 14 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 17 | 5 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 233 | 973 |
| ELO Change | +90 | -90 |
Drew Dober controlled the striking exchanges with 16 vs 5 significant strikes, 59.3% vs 35.7% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Drew Dober capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Marco Polo Reyes |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:05 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 4 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 116 | 969 |
| ELO Change | +44 | -44 |
Minimal ground action with brief exchanges. The low volume resulted in modest ground adjustments.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Marco Polo Reyes |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 112 | 126 |
| Activity ELO | 1 127 | 1 036 |
| ELO Change | +49 | -20 |
Drew Dober demonstrated solid activity levels with 112 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Drew Dober capitalized on this activity level, while Marco Polo Reyes's 126-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Marco Polo Reyes |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 1 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 073 | 1 025 |
| ELO Change | +23 | -21 |
Drew Dober started a new win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Marco Polo Reyes is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Marco Polo Reyes |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 049 | 1 012 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

