May 5, 2023
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Drew Dober | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 21 | 9 |
| Experience Gap | 12 | -12 |
| Experience ELO | 1 140 | 1 107 |
| ELO Change | -45 | +81 |
Matt Frevola overcame a 12-fight experience disadvantage (9 vs 21 fights), earning a reward for beating the more seasoned veteran Drew Dober.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 081 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 4:08 | 4:08 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 387 | 1 350 |
| ELO Change | -68 | +146 |
Matt Frevola earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 4:08, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 20 | 35 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 59 | 75 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 20 | 39 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 0 | 1 |
| Striking ELO | 1 282 | 1 416 |
| ELO Change | -142 | +142 |
Matt Frevola controlled the striking exchanges with 35 vs 20 significant strikes, 46.7% vs 33.9% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Matt Frevola capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 1 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:00 | 0:08 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 0 | 12 |
| Ground ELO | 1 114 | 1 155 |
| ELO Change | -66 | +66 |
Matt Frevola landed 1 knockdown followed by 12 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 140 | 175 |
| Activity ELO | 1 217 | 1 117 |
| ELO Change | -31 | +55 |
Matt Frevola demonstrated solid activity levels with 175 days since his last fight, earning a moderate activity bonus for consistent scheduling. As the winner, Matt Frevola capitalized on this activity level, while Drew Dober's 140-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 0 | 3 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 122 | 1 080 |
| ELO Change | -27 | +35 |
Matt Frevola extended his 3-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Drew Dober is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Matt Frevola |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 081 | 1 057 |
| ELO Change | -26 | +26 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.