January 17, 2020
Lightweight Bout
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Predictions and betting recommendations are only available for fights after July 10, 2025
| Metric | Drew Dober | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Total UFC Fights | 14 | 5 |
| Experience Gap | 9 | -9 |
| Experience ELO | 1 111 | 1 050 |
| ELO Change | +32 | -32 |
Drew Dober's 9-fight experience advantage (14 vs 5 fights) held true, but the algorithm limited the bonus to prevent over-rewarding Drew Dober for the expected result. Had Nasrat Haqparast pulled off the upset, his experience disadvantage would have delivered a modest upset bonus.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Title Fight ? | No | No |
| Title Fight ELO | 1 070 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This was not a title fight, so both fighters received standard ELO adjustments. However, since ELO is a relative system, victories over former champions can have an indirect impact, and Title Fight ELO can differ from Basic ELO.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Fight Outcome | KO/TKO | KO/TKO |
| Last Round | 1 | 1 |
| Time of Finish | 1:10 | 1:10 |
| Win Type ELO | 1 340 | 1 137 |
| ELO Change | +72 | -30 |
Drew Dober earned an early finish with a KO/TKO in round 1 at 1:10, gaining additional bonuses for the first-round stoppage.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Significant Strikes Landed | 13 | 7 |
| Significant Strikes Attempted | 26 | 11 |
| Total Strikes Landed | 13 | 7 |
| Knockdowns Scored | 1 | 0 |
| Striking ELO | 1 328 | 1 116 |
| ELO Change | +95 | -95 |
Drew Dober controlled the striking exchanges with 13 vs 7 significant strikes, 50.0% vs 63.6% accuracy, including 1 devastating knockdown. Drew Dober capitalized on this striking dominance.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Takedowns Landed | 0 | 0 |
| Takedowns Attempted | 0 | 0 |
| Ground Control Time | 0:06 | 0:00 |
| Ground Strikes Landed | 11 | 0 |
| Ground ELO | 1 163 | 1 032 |
| ELO Change | +47 | -47 |
Drew Dober landed 1 knockdown followed by 11 ground strikes. Few ground strikes after a knockdown do not qualify for major ground ELO bonus.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Days Since Last Fight | 204 | 169 |
| Activity ELO | 1 149 | 1 053 |
| ELO Change | +22 | -18 |
Drew Dober demonstrated standard activity with 204 days since his last fight, earning a small activity bonus for reasonable scheduling. As the winner, Drew Dober capitalized on this activity level, while Nasrat Haqparast's 169-day layoff didn't factor into the scoring since only winners receive activity bonuses.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Win Streak | 2 | 0 |
| Win Streak ELO | 1 097 | 1 035 |
| ELO Change | +24 | -20 |
Drew Dober extended his 2-fight win streak, earning a momentum bonus. Nasrat Haqparast is back at 0 with this loss.
| Metric | Drew Dober | Nasrat Haqparast |
|---|---|---|
| Weight Class | Lightweight | Lightweight |
| Double Championship Fight | No | No |
| Basic/Category ELO | 1 070 | 1 020 |
| ELO Change | +21 | -21 |
This category provides the foundation ELO scoring without bonuses, except for exceptional multiple division champions.

